ECS – VOLUME no. 22/2013
The accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on bayesian vectorial-autoregressive models. Comparative analysis Romania-Poland
Authors: Mihaela Simionescu , Yuriy Bilan
Abstract: The aim of this research is to make predictions for macroeconomic variables like inflation rate, unemployment rate and exchange rate for Romania and Poland using BVAR models. The one-step-ahead forecasts cover the horizon 2011-2013. Direct forecasts were developed using three types of priors for data covering the period from 1990 to 2012: Minnesota priors, non-informative priors and natural conjugate priors. The forecasts’ accuracy assessment based on generalized forecast error of second moment put in evidence the superiority of Poland’s predictions based on a BVAR(2) model, compared to Romania’s ones based on a BVAR(4) model for differenced and stationary data series. For inflation rate the forecasts are rather inaccurate, but for Poland the Minnesota priors and for Romania the non-informative priors determined the most accurate predictions for unemployment rate and exchange rate on the horizon 2011-2012. It is very likely that these types of priors generate the best forecasts in 2013.
Keywords: BVAR models, forecasts accuracy, likelihood function, Minnesota prior, non-informative prior, Natural Conjugate prior
Pages: 2-7 | Full text (PDF)
Evolution of the phenomenon integration in Latin America (South America
Authors: Emilian M. Dobrescu, Edith-Mihaela Dobre, Andrey Pyatakov
Abstract: With the end of the Cold War, the creation of a South American economic space has become an important priority of regional powers (Brazil, Argentina, Chile), and the great powers after the war, the U.S. and the European Union (the current name). This integration process has had particular features derived from characteristics of Latin American countries. Multitude of organizations integrative role once again demonstrates the specificity of this process in Latin America to other areas of the world: Africa, Asia, Europe, etc. Contradictory developments phenomenon / Latin American integration process gives substance its characteristic and I will make, probably deeply and future.
Keywords: ALBA, CELAC, ALENA, CARICOM, The integration of Latin American countries (South America), MCCA, MERCOSUR, Andean Pact, The South American integration process, UNASUR, Free Trade Area of the Americas
Pages: 8-13 | Full text (PDF)
Rural tourism: experiences of Croatia
Authors: Damir Demonja
Abstract: Rural tourism is an important factor in the activation and sustainable development of rural areas. Its importance is primarily reflected in the very important interaction between agricultural production, production of traditional products, conservation of cultivated landscape, presentation of traditions and cultural specificities, traditional gastronomy and tourist services, and the use of existing resources. It helps to preserve the local identity, tradition and customs, protecting thus the environment, strengthening the indigenous, traditional and organic production, and supporting the development of rural areas based on sustainable development. Rural space in Croatia occupies 91,6% of its surface and is characterized by a large geographical and social diversity, which is a huge potential for rural tourism. Rural tourism in Croatia, as a special form of tourism in rural areas, which with their natural and cultural resources are base for the development of quality tourism offer, began to develop in recent times and it has less importance than the maritime tourism. This paper provides an overview of the current state of rural tourism in Croatia: distinguishes and analyzes prerequisites for its development, presents and comments state, facilities and capacities, and tourist traffic of rural tourism in Croatia, and proposes ways for its further development.
Keywords: Croatia, rural tourism, development, state, facilities, capacities, tourist traffic, prerequisites
Pages: 14-35 | Full text (PDF)
Ethics in marketing
Authors: Catalina Lache
Abstract: The consumption is a mass phenomenon whose evolution is closely related to the economical and social evolution. During the past decades unprecedented changes took place regarding the share of the volume of products/ services in the structure of the consumption, the means of information and their acquisition, the elimination of the national borders constraints due to globalization, e commerce, e-marketing, internationalization of production and consumption. Under these conditions of global competition, the necessity of monitoring the observance of the ethical principles of marketing, in the current practices of informing the potential clients, of promoting the products and services, popularizing the offers etc, have led to the appearance of consumer protection associations and of goverment bodies which have imposed an ethical code and a legislation for the protection of the fundamental rights and liberties of the citizens as consumers. The Romanian legislation is currently harmonized and consistent with the one protecting the consumers of the European Union. But the problem of respecting the ethical principles in commercial and marketing practices is deficient in Romania, where the rules are often violated. The article presents the legislative harmonization of Romanian consumers’ rights protection, and a case study regarding the observance of ethics in marketing practices and commercial activities.
Keywords: ethics of marketing principles, marketing practices, consumers’ rights protection
Pages: 36-49 | Full text (PDF)
Social economy – a solution to the labor market inclusion
Authors: Dumitru Raluca-Ana-Maria
Abstract: EU social economy takes a wide variety of national, regional, local, which does not prevent the formation of networks of social economy enterprises cooperation at national and European level. The dominant principle of social economy institutions is increasing scope of social responsibility policies to promote social cohesion, building stable community solidarity and a new moral model oriented towards developing an inclusive society.
Keywords: social economy, social inclusion, labor market, sustainable development, economic crisis
Pages: 50-57 | Full text (PDF)
Worldwide trade policies for the cultural sector
Authors: Eugeniu Popa
Abstract: The international cultural trade is a topic that causes hot disputes between countries and even integrationist organizations. The main cause is the different approach toward the value and the role of the cultural goods and services. On the one hand, there is the protectionism, supported by Canada and France, which demand movie industries, broadcasting and magazines to be treated separately from the other services, because an uncontrolled external flow could damage the national identity. On the other hand, the American liberalism promotes the idea that these products and services have to submit to the general trade agreements because an additional intervention would infringe the free competition, that is one of the main principles of a capitalist economy. The two main international organizations that regulate the cultural trade, from different points of view are the WTO and UNESCO.
Keywords: international trade, culture, barrier, liberalism, protectionism
Pages: 58-65 | Full text (PDF)
Perspectives regarding strategic dynamics in modern organizations
Authors: Camelia Băeşu , Ruxandra Bejinaru
Abstract: In order to achieve the objectives in terms of profitability, for modern organizations, the formulation of a proper economic strategy must take into account mainly the domestic and international conditions on which change periodically leaves its mark. This paper captures the role of strategies in the evolution of modern organizations. To ensure market competitiveness requires that companies identify strategies that can ensure their leading position. In this context it is necessary to take into account changes that may affect the internal and external environment of organizations. At the level of top enterprises and organizations (holding companies, corporations, national or multinational companies) economic strategies are characterized by the fact that the overall objective are set on large time horizons for defining economic sectors and areas where businesses operate in general and the distribution of resources on the various component units. The ultimate goal of organizational change is the success, that is a better fit between the organization and the environment in which evolves.
Keywords: modern organizations, change strategies, knowledge, resources, know-how
Pages: 66-71 | Full text (PDF)
Romania’s regionalization project
Authors: Paul Lucian
Abstract: Article 235, paragraph I of the Treaty of Rome provide insight for reducing disparities between the regions of the Member States. The Maastricht Treaty introduced the concept of economic and social conditions that have to be met by those who receive financial aid from the European Union, in order to alleviate regional disparities. The Regional Policy is a common policy developed by the European Union. The E.U. is the strongest international regional organization to date; regional disparities have increased after the enlargement towards Central and Eastern Europe. Common regional policy means the transfer of competence in terms of economic and social development, from central to local level. Romania is facing the most serious regional disparities in Europe and seeks to mitigate their needs of capital inflows or foreign investment, funding from foreign banks, foreign workers from abroad through European funds. Due to the current economic and financial crisis, the only solution is the absorption of European funds. For efficient absorption of EU funds it is necessary to complete the process of regionalization, meaning the division of the country in 10 region, one of which is Sibiu region.
Keywords: structural funds, regional, economic and social cohesion, financial year, the common regional policy
Pages: 72-77 | Full text (PDF)
On justification of legal decisions – efficiency or correctness
Authors: Vihren Bouzov
Abstract: Certain epistemological, logical and social problems of the justification of legal decisions are analyzed in this paper. The thesis is upheld that their efficiency is more important than logical correctness or objective truth -.with efficiency having procedural, moral and economic dimensions. There are two main types of legal decisions – establishment of empirical facts and classification of actions under certain norms. The establishment of empirical facts is faced up with the problem of objectivity of knowledge. Certain specific features of judicial knowledge make it differ from scientific knowledge. There exists an objective duality of institutions of judicial evidence and legal decision-making. The search for material truth is its main task according to the rules of procedure. It relies on established empirical facts and not only on interpretation and language context. But it is possible to have a logically correct decision that is not truth. The results of court proceedings come up as arguments in a reasoning game. Objective truth and creativity are indispensable in the court game. It is impermissible to go beyond its rules: they are enacted in texts of law. Some arguments are forwarded saying that court cases have not only one correct decision. Several competing correct (“right”) solutions can be in clash in a given court game within a framework defined by existing rules of procedure. Very important is the economic aspect of a case – it can be successfully analyzed by means of the decision theoretic methodology of the Law and Economics School.
Keywords: Decision theory, Law and Economics School, Legal Decisions, Efficiency, Correctness
Pages: 78-83 | Full text (PDF)
Human resources in european market in the past decade
Authors: Ahmet Ecirli , Edith-Mihaela Dobre , Emilian M. Dobrescu
Abstract: European market is known to pay particular importance to characteristics of human resources in the past decade. It is well known that these features such as unemployment rate caused deep economic and social crisis encountered in the EU member countries by the end of the last decade and continues today in most of them. The forecasts of the experts stating that the crisis will last 5 to 7 years has been considered promising but with suspicion. That is why it is extremely important that policy-makers should not lose sight in making economic, social and political decisions where the balance is always fragile in terms of interdependence of the labor market.
Keywords: European market, human resources, monthly salary, number of employees, purchasing power parity (PPP), relocation-outsourcing, unemployment rate
Pages: 84-91 | Full text (PDF)